The Capitol in Washington, June 28, 2024. A report says new approaches and increased spending are needed to ensure that government statistics remain dependable and free of political influence. (Eric Lee/The New York Times)
Federal Reserve officials use government data to help determine when to raise or lower interest rates. Congress and the White House use it to decide when to extend jobless benefits or send out stimulus payments. Investors place billions of dollars worth of bets that are tied to monthly reports on job growth, inflation and retail sales.
But a new study says the integrity of that data is in increasing jeopardy.
The report, issued July 9 by the American Statistical Association, concludes that government statistics are reliable right now. But that could soon change, the study warns, citing factors including shrinking budgets, falling survey response rates and the potential for political interference.
The authors — statisticians from George Mason University, the Urban Institute and other institutions — likened the statistical system to physical infrastructure like highways and bridges: vital, but often ignored until something goes wrong.
“We do identify this sort of downward spiral as a threat, and that’s what we’re trying to counter,” said Nancy Potok, who served as chief statistician of the United States from 2017-19 and was one of the report’s authors.
The report, “The Nation’s Data at Risk,” highlights the threats facing statistics produced across the federal government, including data on education, health, crime and demographic trends.
But the risks to economic data are particularly notable because of the attention it receives from policymakers and investors. Most of that data is based on surveys of households or businesses. And response rates to government surveys have plummeted in recent years, as they have for private polls. The response rate to the Current Population Survey — the monthly survey of about 60,000 households that is the basis for the unemployment rate and other labor force statistics — has fallen to about 70% in recent months, from nearly 90% a decade ago.
Statistical agencies say they routinely review their data for evidence that falling response rates are leading to biased results and remain confident in their data — a conclusion backed by the American Statistical Association report.
The new report calls on Congress to provide more funding to the statistical agencies, to ensure the continued reliability of their existing data.
But funding is not the only challenge, the report’s authors stressed. They said Congress should also make it easier for agencies to share data with one another so that they can operate more efficiently. And they called for more explicit protections to keep statistical agencies free from political interference.
c.2024 The New York Times Company. This article originally appeared in The New York Times.
