The U.S. presidential election will be looming ever larger in our national psyche as we take to the homestretch to Election Day Nov. 5.
The upcoming candidates’ debate will bring President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump face-to-face on CNN on June 27. Both parties will hold their national conventions soon after. Then there are the continuing courtroom dramas involving the two hopefuls – either directly or indirectly.
So, amid the many election issues garnering the most attention right now, what are voters most concerned about?
Well, it doesn’t seem to be tax policy, a national pollster says.
Patrick Murray, director of The Polling Institute at Monmouth University in Monmouth County, N.J., notes that issues such as inflation, immigration and abortion are “top of mind” for voters right now, based on polling.
But experts in the taxation field suggest that the nuts and bolts of the parties’ tax policies deserve some extra voter focus right now, especially given the expiration in 2025 of certain provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act enacted under Trump’s prior administration.
Erica York is senior economist and research director with the Tax Foundation’s Center for Federal Tax Policy, and is one of those experts.
The Tax Foundation is “the world’s leading nonpartisan tax policy nonprofit,” it notes, and has for more than 85 years had a “mission to improve lives through tax policies that lead to greater economic growth and opportunity.”
York recently offered Rethinking65 some analysis of the impact of the candidates’ differing tax policies for investors — and for the public in general.
And considering how difficult it can be to get past the donations page on the candidate websites to find solid information on their tax policy, the foundation can provide excellent guidance.
York noted Biden’s tax policy is characterized by higher taxes on U.S. businesses and high-income households, and more tax preferences and credits for narrow groups of households and activities.
Trump’s tax policy is characterized by lower taxes for U.S. businesses and households, but higher taxes on imports through new tariffs, which would fall hardest on lower income households. Our Q&A with York takes a closer look at her analysis.
Legislative Elections Matter
Many articles offer additional insight into the impact of tax policy for investors. And the Tax Foundation has a helpful summary of the current Tax Cuts and Jobs Act here.
But one caveat comes from a market strategist at Ameriprise Financial, regarding tax policy:
“Importantly, both administrations will be subject to the makeup of Congress following the election, and a result that leads to the continuation of a divided government may severely limit what a Biden or Trump administration can accomplish when it comes to changing tax laws,” writes Anthony Saglimbene, Chief Market Strategist of Ameriprise Financial. York also addressed the role of Congress:
“Changes to tax policy, including how to address the looming expirations of the 2017 tax law or how to implement ideas requested by a president, must be done by an act of Congress,” she said.
“The makeup of the next Congress will be a large determining factor for what ultimately becomes law and what the tax code of the future looks like.”
She noted that the executive branch does have “a bit more leeway when it comes to imposing tariffs, however, and much of that can be done without Congressional approval. Congress could revisit how much authority they’ve delegated to the executive if they wanted to rein in tariff-setting power,” she said.
So the outcome of the 2024 election – both in the executive and legislative branches – is a key factor in any potential changes to tax policy. And that brings us to the individual voter.
How Do Voters Feel?
Murray, of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, expounded upon voter sentiment in a recent survey – and it doesn’t present a very rosy or cozy picture.
He said the institute’s most recent presidential poll can be found here. Its prior polling can be found here.
“However, we have not asked anything about tax policy. It has not emerged as a top issue for voters,” Murray said.
But its most recent poll (published April 29 before the “hush money” trial of Trump) does show a lack of enthusiasm among voters for any candidate.
The poll showed “nearly equal levels of potential support” for Biden and Trump, in which “about 1 in 6 voters hold unfavorable views of both presumptive nominees. Most of this group remains up for grabs in the general election as few have a strong inclination to vote for independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.,” the institute said in its summary of the poll.
As mentioned earlier, other results in the poll show “most Republicans say immigration and inflation are their top presidential election issues while abortion is the most determinative voting issue for Democrats. The Israel-Gaza war and climate change are much less important for voters in either party.”
“Enthusiasm for a 2020 rematch has increased slightly now that these two candidates are the presumptive nominees. But most voters are not looking forward to November,” said Murray, in the summary of the poll.
‘Double Haters’
The poll found “overall, nearly 6 in 10 voters have an unfavorable opinion of either Biden (58%) or Trump (57%). Combined, 2% of the electorate has a favorable opinion of both candidates, 41% has a favorable opinion of Trump only and 39% has a favorable opinion of Biden only. This leaves 17% who have an unfavorable opinion of both candidates,” the summary says.
Murray said in a separate interview that the term “double hater” refers to a phenomenon identified at least as early as 2016 — the Hillary Clinton/Trump match.
But voter age is a factor, too, in the double-hater trend.
“There are not a lot of demographic differences that distinguish these so-called ‘double haters,’ but they do tend to be younger. Specifically, 27% of voters under 35 years old fall into the double-hater group, compared with just 16% of those 35 to 54 years old and 10% of those age 55 and older,” the poll summary said.
And turnout, of course, is another factor in determining which candidate will prevail.
“When partisan voters name their top issues in this election, it is not about weighing the candidates’ positions. It’s more about which issues are motivating them to get out to vote. You have to focus on the small group of voters who are up for grabs to see which issue may actually sway voters. In this case, it appears to be inflation,” Murray said in the summary of the poll.
Patricia McDaniel is a New Jersey-based journalist. She can be reached at pmcd5353@gmail.com.
