A man arranges produce at Best World Supermarket in the Mount Pleasant neighborhood of Washington, D.C., U.S., August 19, 2022. REUTERS/Sarah Silbiger/File Photo
The U.S. central bank’s decision to cut interest rates by half a percentage point leaves open the risk of a resurgence in inflation, a former Kansas City Federal Reserve president says.
“They are gambling that they have inflation under control,” Thomas Hoenig told the Reuters Global Markets Forum on Sept. 19. “They have turned their attention to maintaining employment, and that does inflate the risk of renewed inflation down the road.”
The Fed kicked off its easing cycle on Sept. 18 with its first rate cut since 2020, citing “greater confidence” that inflation is moving towards the central bank’s 2% target, as it now focuses on keeping the labor market healthy.
A hefty Fed rate cut also adds pressure on an already declining U.S. dollar, said Hoenig, who led the Kansas City Fed from 1991 to 2011.
The dollar has weakened since July to levels last seen in December 2023, amid growing worries the Fed’s aggressive easing stance could undermine its strength globally.
An eroding dollar will lead to more expensive imports while encouraging demand for our goods overseas, both adding to inflationary pressures, Hoenig said.
Meanwhile, in addition to a string of “pro-growth” policies, the U.S. government plans to borrow at least $2 trillion in new debt to finance its fiscal deficit. Refinancing short-term loans could also push interest rates higher.
To avoid that, the Fed might stop reducing its balance sheet and even consider restarting its efforts to inject money into the economy in the form of quantitative easing (QE), Hoenig said.
“That’s a risk over the next six to nine months, but it’s a real risk that no one’s paying much attention to, and it’s one that I’m watching carefully,” he said.
